三维变分同化中多变量平衡约束设计

在现代变分同化系统中,背景场误差协方差起着决定观测信息的空间分布特征、匹配不同变量间的关系和保证分析增量平衡的作用。基于NMC(National Meteorology Centre)方法,设计了一个新的多变量平衡约束算子:在物理变换中,构建相对湿度和其余控制变量间的平衡约束算子;同时分别采用经验正交函数方法和递归滤波器来模拟控制变量(ψ,χ_u,T_u,h_ru,p_su)^T的垂直误差协方差和水平误差协方差。利用2009年6月2日到8月9日间WRF模式的预报差值场,对新的背景场误差协方差进行模拟分析。单点观测试验表明,新的背景场误差协方差实现了观测信息在干湿变量之间的传递,而且相对湿度具有与温度相似的增量场分布。     

长江流域径流对全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃的响应

全球变暖影响着以流域径流要素为主导的水文水资源系统的变化。长江流域未来水资源量的时空分布对长江大保护与长江经济带的发展意义重大。为探究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃对长江流域径流变化的影响,使用基于偏差校正的气候模式集合数据驱动两参数月水量平衡模型,比较两种升温情景下径流量的响应差异。结果表明：基于偏差校正的气候模式集合数据可以较好地代表长江流域历史时期（1976—2005年）的年平均降水和年平均蒸散发情势。两参数月水量平衡模型与参数区域化方法相结合能较好地模拟长江流域各子流域的月径流量。升温1.5℃时,无论是年径流量还是季节径流量均呈上升趋势,与历史时期相比,50%以上三级子流域的增幅超过5%;升温2.0℃时,增幅超过8%。这表明升温2.0℃情景下长江流域水资源量将进一步增加。相对于历史时期,升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江流域北部降水量增幅较大;径流量增幅分布格局基本与降水量一致。汉江流域是全流域径流量增幅最显著的区域。     

全球变化下澜沧江-湄公河流域水量平衡模拟

流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域（简称：澜湄流域）八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型（Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change,RCCC-WBM）开展了区间径流及水量平衡模拟研究。结果表明：1）澜湄流域不同区间气候水文差异显著,上游气温低且年内变幅大,下游气温高年内变幅小;尽管不同区间降水、径流的年内分配特征总体一致,但径流的年内分布峰值大多滞后降水峰值一个时段。2）RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出澜湄流域不同区间的径流过程,率定期和验证期的月径流模拟效率系数（Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,NSE）均在60%以上,总量模拟误差（Relative Error,RE）也均控制在±10%以内,模型具有较好的区域适应性。3）模拟的土壤含水量都具有先衰减后增加再衰减的年内分配特征;不同季节径流和蒸发耗散的水源不同,降水是汛期水分耗散的主要来源,而土壤含水量是非汛期径流和蒸发消耗的主要水源。     

Application of a Degree-Day Model for Determination of Mass Balance of Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Eastern Tianshan, China

In order to verify the feasibility and stability of a degree-day model on simulating the long time series of glacier mass balance, we apply a degree-day model to simulate the mass balance of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 for the period 1987/1988-2007/2008 based on temperature and precipitation data from a nearby climate station. The model is calibrated by simulating point measurements of mass bal-ance, mass balance profiles, and mean specific mass balance during 1987/1988-1996/1997. The opti-mized parameters are obt...     

黔北务一正一道铝土矿床不活动元素地球化学与质量平衡计算

贵州务川一正安一道真（务一正一道）铝土矿属于古风化壳沉积型铝土矿床,是黔中一渝南铝土矿成矿带的重要组成部分。铝土矿产于中下志留系韩家店组（S1-2hj）泥页岩或上石炭统黄龙组（C2h）灰岩的侵蚀面上,含矿层位为中二叠统梁山组（P21）。根据元素地球化学特征及相关分析表明,Ti、zr、Nb、cr、Th、Ga、Hf、Ta及V在铝土矿矿化过程中均为不活动元素。特别是Ti在铝土矿矿化过程中性质最稳定,故可对其用于质量平衡的计算。铝土矿化过程中一些元素的质量变化可以通过不活动元素在铝土矿（岩）和中下志留系韩家店组（s1-2。hj）泥页岩中的含量变化来估算。计算结果显示,大多数活动元素从铝土矿体系中移走,部分Si、Mg、K、Fe以及少量的弱活动性AJ向下渗透,并沉淀为伊利石（绢云母、绿泥石）、赤铁矿和石英或非晶体硅。通过系统研究和质量平衡计算,可初步确定SI1-2hj泥页岩为务一正一道铝土矿主要的成矿原岩。     

上海市耕地占补动态管理机制研究

探索建立耕地占补动态管理机制是解决上海土地资源瓶颈因素制约的有效途径,也是国家土地资源管理的创新需求。分析我国耕地占补平衡政策现存问题及未来发展趋势,结合上海市耕地占补的突出特点,构建以＂两级动态统筹占补平衡＂和＂多层次异地占补平衡＂为创新方向的耕地占补动态管理机制。该机制框架包括耕地占用指标市-区（县）两级的动态分配机制、耕地补充指标市-区（县）两级的动态筹集机制;该机制的细部设计则包括目标—责任动态考核机制、多途径激励参与机制、耕地指标市场交易机制、指标变化动态监督机制以及信息化技术保障等5个方面。     

Simulation and analysis of river runoff in typical cold regions

It is generally agreed that global warming is taking place, which has caused runoff generation processes and apparently total runoff amount changes in cold regions of Northwestern China. It is absolutely necessary to quantify and analyze earth surface hydrological processes by numerical models for formulating scientific sustainable development of water resources. Hydrological models became established tools for studying the hydrological cycle, but did not consider frozen soil or glacier hydrology. Thus, they should be improved to satisfy the simulation of hydrological processes in cold regions. In this paper, an energy balance glacier melt model was successfully coupled to the VIC model with frozen soil scheme, thus improving the models performance in a cold catchment area. We performed the improved VIC model to simulate the hydrological processes in the Aksu River Basin, and the simulated results are in good agreement with observed data. Based on modeling hydrological data, the runoff components and their response to climate change were analyzed. The results show: (1) Glacial meltwater recharge accounts for 29.2% of runoff for the Toxkan River, and 58.7% for the Kunma Like River. (2) The annual total runoff of two branches of the Aksu River show increasing trends, increased by about 43.1%, 25.95×10⁶ m³ per year for the Toxkan River and by 13.1%, 14.09×10⁶ m³ per year for the Kunma Like River during the latter 38 years. (3) The annual total runoff of the Toxkan River increased simply due to the increase of non-glacial runoff, while the increase of annual total runoff of the Kunma Like River was the result of increasing glacial (42%) and non-glacial runoff (58%).     

Energy balance in the ablation zone during the summer season at the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in the Southern Andes

The energy balance and ablation of Glaciar Lengua were investigated during the austral summer of 1999/2000. Glaciar Lengua is located in Patagonia, in the southernmost Andes of Chile (53°S), within an extremely maritime climate. The aim of this study was to gain insight into current energy fluxes at this location and to evaluate how the energy fluxes depend on meteorological variables. From February to April 2000 an automated weather station was operated on Glaciar Lengua. Ablation was measured repeatedly at stakes during the same period. The point energy balance was calculated using the bulk approach formulation. The effective roughness length was adjusted in order to calibrate the model to the measured ablation. It was revealed that sensible heat transfer is the major contribution to the energy balance adding 54% of the energy available for melt. Net radiation contributes only 35% to the overall energy balance. Minor contributors are the latent heat flux (7%) and the heat flux by precipitation (4%). The net radiation shows little variance from day to day. Cross-correlations of the daily mean values of the energy fluxes derived from the energy balance model and meteorological variables reveal that air temperature and wind speed are the key factors controlling the summer energy balance in the ablation area. Melt derived from a multiple regression model based on these two variables correlates with computed melt with a correlation coefficient of 0.92. From the measured ablation, a summer-time degree-day factor of 7.6 mm·°C^− 1 was derived for the ablation area.     

分布式地理信息系统的负载平衡

首先论述了分布式空间数据库的特征,并根据这些特征简单介绍了一个分布式地理信息系统结构,然后比较深入地介绍了负载平衡及其相关算法等内容,并在设计的系统原型中实现了分布式地理信息系统各节点的负载平衡,最后讨论了如何在分布式地理信息系统中运用负载平衡理论来提高系统的性能。